Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?
ActiveLiquidity $10.1K·Volume $11.5K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes16%No85%
Smart money leans
No
85% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
69%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
85%price85%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$876 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered56¢85¢at 07:25(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$10.1K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "No", with $876 riding on it.
The price of 85% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 56¢; the price was 85¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $876 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:25
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 2.9¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836Top | Sell | Yes | 37¢ | $437 |
| 1w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | No | 58¢ | $245 |
| 1w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | No | 56¢ | $425 |
| 1w ago | 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836Top | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $1,017 |
| 1w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 43¢ | $79 |
| 1w ago | 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836Top | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $48 |
| 1w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 59¢ | $183 |
| 1w ago | 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836Top | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836Top | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836Top | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 58¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 39¢ | $34 |
| 4w ago | 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836Top | Buy | Yes | 27¢ | $4 |