Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $32.4K·Volume $1.1M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes5%No95%
Smart money leans
No
94% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
94%price94%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$38.6K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h -$11.5K
Smart money entered70¢94¢at 08:08(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$32.4K
Explanation
5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $38.6K riding on it.
The price of 94% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 70¢; the price was 94¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have trimmed -$11.5K on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 08:08
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $564 |
| 1h ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $564 |
| 1d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $685 |
| 1d ago | DumplingBMFMid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $730 |
| 1d ago | ethBELIVERMid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $7,044 |
| 1d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $685 |
| 1d ago | DumplingBMFMid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $730 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $46 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $46 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $11 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $11 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $89 |
| 1d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $100 |
| 1d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $100 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $89 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $245 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $245 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $245 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $245 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $245 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $107 |
| 4d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $118 |
| 4d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $98 |
| 5d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $2 |
| 5d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $131 |
| 5d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $394 |
| 5d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $106 |
| 5d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $51 |
| 5d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $466 |
| 1w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $131 |
| 1w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $323 |
| 1w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 91¢ | $455 |
| 1w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $2,670 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $26 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $65 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $94 |
| 1w ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 91¢ | $16 |
| 1w ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 91¢ | $13 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $445 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $292 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $467 |
| 1w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $3,045 |
| 1w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $28 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $890 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $465 |
| 1w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $378 |
| 1w ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 90¢ | $1,170 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 90¢ | $314 |
| 1w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $315 |
| 2w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | No | 86¢ | $3 |