Will PSOE win 120 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
ActiveLiquidity $7,951·Volume $2,353·Ends Nov 30, 2026
Price now:Yes25%No75%
Smart money leans
No
77% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
77%price77%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,511 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered82¢77¢at 05:34(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy4d agoResolvesin 17d(Nov 30, 2026)Liquidity$7,951
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $1,511 riding on it.
The price of 77% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 82¢; the price was 77¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,511 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 05:34
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | 0x4d01…1645Mid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $178 |
| 4d ago | 0x4d01…1645Mid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $888 |
| 4d ago | 0x4d01…1645Mid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $182 |
| 1w ago | 0x4d01…1645Mid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $367 |