Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 8%-12%?
ActiveLiquidity $10.3K·Volume $5,919·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes75%No25%
Smart money leans
Yes
75% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
75%price75%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$222 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$75
72h +$269
Smart money entered52¢75¢at 07:17(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy11h agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$10.3K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $222 riding on it.
The price of 75% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 52¢; the price was 75¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $222 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$75, +$269 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:17
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $95 |
| 2d ago | 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fTop | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $126 |
| 2d ago | 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fTop | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $126 |
| 3d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 88¢ | $46 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $5 |