Will Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
ActiveLiquidity $26.8K·Volume $12.7K·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes19%No81%
Smart money leans
No
81% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
81%price81%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$536 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered71¢81¢at 06:52(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3w agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$26.8K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $536 riding on it.
The price of 81% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 71¢; the price was 81¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $536 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:52
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $5 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $112 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $3 |
| 4w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $21 |
| 4w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $3 |
| 4w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $4 |
| 4w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $7 |
| 4w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $7 |
| 4w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $7 |
| 4w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $4 |
| 4w ago | MeckyMid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $359 |
| 4w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $2 |
| 5w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $2 |
| 5w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $2 |
| 7w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $4 |