Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
ActiveLiquidity $30.3K·Volume $104.0K·Ends Nov 5, 2026
Price now:Yes55%No45%
Smart money leans
Yes
62% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
86%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
62%price62%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$527 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered16¢62¢at 07:38(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2w agoResolvesended(Nov 5, 2026)Liquidity$30.3K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $527 riding on it.
The price of 62% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 16¢; the price was 62¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $527 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:38
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 40¢ | $40 |
| 2w ago | 101456Mid | Buy | No | 63¢ | $64 |
| 2w ago | troimMid | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $301 |
| 2w ago | troimMid | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $8 |
| 2w ago | troimMid | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | troimMid | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $2 |
| 2w ago | kekkoneMid | Sell | Yes | 13¢ | $95 |
| 2w ago | troimMid | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $84 |
| 2w ago | troimMid | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | troimMid | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $17 |
| 2w ago | troimMid | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $8 |
| 2w ago | troimMid | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | kekkoneMid | Sell | Yes | 9.6¢ | $12 |
| 2w ago | kekkoneMid | Sell | Yes | 9.1¢ | $16 |
| 2w ago | kekkoneMid | Buy | Yes | 9.2¢ | $46 |
| 2w ago | kekkoneMid | Sell | Yes | 13¢ | $5 |
| 2w ago | kekkoneMid | Sell | Yes | 14¢ | $8 |
| 2w ago | kekkoneMid | Sell | Yes | 9.1¢ | $6 |
| 2w ago | 101456Mid | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $135 |
| 2w ago | kekkoneMid | Sell | Yes | 15¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | kekkoneMid | Buy | Yes | 8.7¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | kekkoneMid | Buy | Yes | 8.6¢ | $17 |
| 2w ago | kekkoneMid | Buy | Yes | 8.7¢ | $43 |