Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?
ActiveLiquidity $14.6K·Volume $131.3K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes5%No96%
Smart money leans
No
96% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price96%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$940 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$114
Smart money entered94¢96¢at 17:49(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3d agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$14.6K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $940 riding on it.
The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 94¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $940 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$114 on this position.