Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 8%-12%?
ActiveLiquidity $4,362·Volume $4,030·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes0%No100%
Smart money leans
No
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$693 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered100¢100¢at 07:45(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$4,362
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $693 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 100¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $693 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:45
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 100¢ | $1,033 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $5 |