Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
ActiveLiquidity $795.9K·Volume $3.6M·Ends Apr 19, 2027
Price now:Yes14%No87%
Smart money leans
No
87% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.2pp
model above price
Consensus
98%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
87%price87%model est.*
Smart wallets
8
$177.6K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$12.3K
72h +$65.0K
Smart money entered87¢87¢at 07:22(0% priced in)Edge left+0.2ppLast smart buy5h agoResolvesin 159d(Apr 19, 2027)Liquidity$795.9K
Explanation
8 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $177.6K riding on it.
The price of 87% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 87¢; the price was 87¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$12.3K, +$65.0K over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:22
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5h ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 86¢ | $1,225 |
| 5h ago | kekkoneMid | Buy | No | 86¢ | $860 |
| 5h ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 86¢ | $1,225 |
| 5h ago | kekkoneMid | Buy | No | 86¢ | $860 |
| 8h ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 86¢ | $6 |
| 8h ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 86¢ | $491 |
| 11h ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 86¢ | $37 |
| 11h ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 86¢ | $86 |
| 12h ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 86¢ | $92 |
| 12h ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 86¢ | $3,222 |
| 1d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $235 |
| 1d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $235 |
| 1d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $235 |
| 1d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $235 |
| 1d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $235 |
| 1d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $235 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $578 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $578 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $578 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $578 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $578 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $578 |
| 1d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 87¢ | $495 |
| 1d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 87¢ | $495 |
| 1d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 87¢ | $495 |
| 1d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 87¢ | $495 |
| 1d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 87¢ | $495 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $129 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $2,936 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $70 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $11 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $11 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $27 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $27 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $92 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $92 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $1,213 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $1,213 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $1,740 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $1,740 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $157 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $789 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $789 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $789 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $789 |