Will Guy Cormier win the 2026 Laurier—Sainte-Marie by-election?
ActiveLiquidity $4,298·Volume $2,294·Ends Dec 7, 2026
Price now:Yes94%No6%
Smart money leans
Yes
94% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
94%price94%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,361 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered92¢94¢at 05:43(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 25d(Dec 7, 2026)Liquidity$4,298
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,361 riding on it.
The price of 94% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 92¢; the price was 94¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,361 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 05:43
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | 0x4d01…1645Mid | Buy | Yes | 91¢ | $11 |
| 1w ago | 0x4d01…1645Mid | Buy | Yes | 91¢ | $273 |
| 1w ago | 0x4d01…1645Mid | Buy | Yes | 91¢ | $91 |
| 1w ago | 0x4d01…1645Mid | Buy | Yes | 91¢ | $196 |
| 1w ago | 0x4d01…1645Mid | Buy | Yes | 91¢ | $82 |
| 1w ago | 0x4d01…1645Mid | Buy | Yes | 91¢ | $91 |
| 1w ago | 0x4d01…1645Mid | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $517 |
| 1w ago | 0x4d01…1645Mid | Buy | Yes | 87¢ | $102 |