Will Green Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
ActiveLiquidity $18.6K·Volume $40.1K·Ends Nov 8, 2026
Price now:Yes99%No1%
Smart money leans
Yes
98% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
67%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$374 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered96¢98¢at 17:13Edge leftnoneLast smart buy5d agoResolvesended(Nov 8, 2026)Liquidity$18.6K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is somewhat betting on "Yes", with $374 riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 96¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot.
Note: only $374 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 17:13
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Sell | Yes | 99¢ | $1,246 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 1.7¢ | $1 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 1.7¢ | $1 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 1.7¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 7.5¢ | $4 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 83¢ | $24 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 83¢ | $33 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $1,397 |
| 5d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $374 |
| 5d ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 4.0¢ | $29 |
| 6d ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 9.0¢ | $9 |
| 6d ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 5.0¢ | $135 |
| 1w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 82¢ | $115 |
| 1w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 22¢ | $10 |
| 3w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 71¢ | $129 |
| 3w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 63¢ | $13 |
| 5w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 63¢ | $104 |