Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by November 30, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $22.5K·Volume $8,606·Ends Dec 1, 2026
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,252 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered88¢98¢at 11:41(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 20d(Dec 1, 2026)Liquidity$22.5K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $1,252 riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 88¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,252 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.