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Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $26.9K·Volume $142.4K·Ends Jan 1, 2028
Price now:Yes67%No33%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:35computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
67% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
85%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
67%price67%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$4,191 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$2,525
Smart money entered66¢67¢at 07:35(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 416d(Jan 1, 2028)Liquidity$26.9K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $4,191 riding on it.

The price of 67% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 66¢; the price was 67¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$2,525 on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of 07:35
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1d agoMissaoComFlavioMidBuyYes71¢$178
1d agoMissaoComFlavioMidBuyYes71¢$178
1d agoMissaoComFlavioMidBuyYes68¢$806
1d agoMissaoComFlavioMidBuyYes68¢$806
2d agoMissaoComFlavioMidBuyYes71¢$137
2d agoMissaoComFlavioMidBuyYes71¢$506
3d ago0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271MidBuyYes62¢$7
3d ago0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271MidBuyYes53¢$2
4d agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes70¢$274
4d agocashyMidBuyYes64¢$2,550
4d ago0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271MidBuyYes64¢$32
5d agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes65¢$625
5d agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes58¢$160
6d agopakukudolphiMidSellNo43¢$776
1w agopakukudolphiMidBuyNo47¢$23
1w agopakukudolphiMidBuyNo47¢$822
1w agopakukudolphiMidBuyNo47¢$26
1w ago0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271MidBuyYes50¢$15
1w ago0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271MidBuyYes50¢$5
1w ago0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271MidBuyYes38¢$6
1w ago0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271MidBuyYes40¢$40
1w ago0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271MidBuyYes41¢$22
1w ago0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271MidBuyYes42¢$8
1w ago0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271MidBuyYes43¢$28
1w agowhigTopBuyNo50¢$5
1w agowhigTopBuyNo50¢$136
1w agowhigTopBuyNo50¢$25
1w agowhigTopBuyNo50¢$200
1w agowhigTopBuyNo50¢$122
1w agowhigTopBuyNo50¢$4
1w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes49¢$108
1w agowhigTopBuyNo50¢$9
2w agowhigTopBuyNo64¢$797
2w ago0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271MidBuyYes39¢$8
2w agoflawfenceMidBuyNo30¢$15
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyNo36¢$11
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyNo38¢$33
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes61¢$525
2w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyNo37¢$62
3w agopakukudolphiMidBuyNo36¢$4
3w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes60¢$106
3w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes62¢$72
3w ago0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271MidBuyYes54¢$22
3w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes65¢$33
4w agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes64¢$79
4w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyNo36¢$37
4w agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes65¢$19
4w agoJAMJAMJAM4MidBuyYes59¢$64
5w agoHolyMoses7MidBuyYes63¢$164
5w agoHolyMoses7MidSellYes68¢$27