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Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $90.6K·Volume $613.5K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes2%No98%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 20:27computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
90%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$6,955 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered89¢98¢at 20:27(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3w agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$90.6K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $6,955 riding on it.

The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 89¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $6,955 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Delayed 1h · as of 20:27
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1w agoTenebrus7TopSellNo95¢$476
3w agoTenebrus7TopSellNo96¢$480
3w agoTokorTopBuyNo90¢$2,700
3w agoTokorTopBuyNo89¢$1,457
4w agoTokorTopBuyNo89¢$890
4w agoTokorTopBuyNo88¢$999
4w agoTokorTopBuyNo91¢$910
5w ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7TopBuyYes7.0¢$746
5w ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7TopBuyYes7.0¢$24
5w ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7TopSellNo93¢$3,272
5w ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7TopSellNo93¢$4,632
5w ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7TopSellNo93¢$4,755
6w ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7TopSellNo92¢$1,830
8w ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7TopSellNo91¢$224
9w agoTenebrus7TopBuyNo89¢$445
9w agoTenebrus7TopBuyNo90¢$450