US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 15, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $1·Volume $0·Ends Dec 16, 2026
Price now:Yes23%No78%
Smart money leans
Yes
24% at snapshot
Divergence
+1.3pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
24%price25%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$315 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$86
72h +$614
Smart money entered32¢24¢at 07:18(0% priced in)Edge left+1.3ppLast smart buy8h agoResolvesin 35d(Dec 16, 2026)Liquidity$1
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $315 riding on it.
The price of 24% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 32¢; the price was 24¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $315 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$86, +$614 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:18
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 24¢ | $25 |
| 8h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 24¢ | $25 |
| 8h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 24¢ | $7 |
| 8h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 24¢ | $7 |
| 8h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 24¢ | $16 |
| 15h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 26¢ | $1 |
| 15h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 26¢ | $1 |
| 16h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 26¢ | $2 |
| 16h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 26¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 33¢ | $32 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 33¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksMid | Buy | Yes | 33¢ | $264 |
| 1d ago | 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksMid | Buy | Yes | 33¢ | $264 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 33¢ | $32 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 33¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksMid | Buy | Yes | 33¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksMid | Buy | Yes | 33¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksMid | Buy | Yes | 33¢ | $64 |
| 1d ago | 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksMid | Buy | Yes | 33¢ | $64 |