Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $48.2K·Volume $191.5K·Ends Dec 1, 2026
Price now:Yes5%No95%
Smart money leans
No
95% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
98%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
95%price95%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$10.4K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$1,900
72h +$3,987
Smart money entered94¢95¢at 07:00(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1h agoResolvesin 20d(Dec 1, 2026)Liquidity$48.2K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $10.4K riding on it.
The price of 95% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 94¢; the price was 95¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $10.4K of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$1,900, +$3,987 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:00
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $950 |
| 5h ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $950 |
| 1d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $626 |
| 2d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $738 |
| 2d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $738 |
| 3d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $18 |
| 3d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $209 |
| 3d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $190 |
| 3d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $5 |
| 3d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $32 |
| 3d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $190 |
| 3d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $190 |
| 3d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $19 |
| 4d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $1 |
| 4d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $518 |
| 5d ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $744 |
| 5d ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $691 |
| 5d ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $7 |
| 5d ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $50 |
| 1w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $919 |
| 1w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $19 |
| 1w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $184 |
| 1w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $360 |
| 2w ago | debasedMid | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $22 |
| 2w ago | debasedMid | Buy | Yes | 9.9¢ | $311 |
| 2w ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $643 |
| 2w ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $22 |
| 2w ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $87 |
| 2w ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $2 |
| 2w ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $40 |
| 2w ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $201 |
| 2w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $363 |
| 2w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $595 |
| 3w ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $39 |
| 3w ago | Voland6777Mid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $125 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 10¢ | $15 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 10¢ | $86 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $11 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $7 |
| 4w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $182 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 9.4¢ | $94 |
| 4w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $91 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $18 |
| 5w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $413 |
| 5w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $500 |