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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?

ActiveLiquidity $48.2K·Volume $191.5K·Ends Dec 1, 2026
Price now:Yes5%No95%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:00computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
95% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
98%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
95%price95%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$10.4K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$1,900
72h +$3,987
Smart money entered94¢95¢at 07:00(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1h agoResolvesin 20d(Dec 1, 2026)Liquidity$48.2K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $10.4K riding on it.

The price of 95% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 94¢; the price was 95¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $10.4K of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$1,900, +$3,987 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 07:00
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1h agoVoland6777MidBuyNo95¢$950
5h agoVoland6777MidBuyNo95¢$950
1d agononkenny90MidBuyNo95¢$626
2d agononkenny90MidBuyNo96¢$738
2d agononkenny90MidBuyNo96¢$738
3d agononkenny90MidBuyNo95¢$18
3d agononkenny90MidBuyNo95¢$209
3d agononkenny90MidBuyNo95¢$190
3d agononkenny90MidBuyNo95¢$5
3d agononkenny90MidBuyNo95¢$0
3d agononkenny90MidBuyNo95¢$32
3d agononkenny90MidBuyNo95¢$0
3d agononkenny90MidBuyNo95¢$190
3d agononkenny90MidBuyNo95¢$190
3d agononkenny90MidBuyNo95¢$19
4d agononkenny90MidBuyNo95¢$1
4d agononkenny90MidBuyNo96¢$518
5d agoVoland6777MidBuyNo93¢$744
5d agoVoland6777MidBuyNo95¢$691
5d agoVoland6777MidBuyNo95¢$7
5d agoVoland6777MidBuyNo95¢$6
1w agononkenny90MidBuyNo92¢$50
1w agononkenny90MidBuyNo92¢$919
1w agononkenny90MidBuyNo92¢$5
1w agononkenny90MidBuyNo92¢$19
1w agononkenny90MidBuyNo92¢$6
1w agononkenny90MidBuyNo92¢$184
1w agononkenny90MidBuyNo92¢$360
2w agodebasedMidBuyYes10¢$22
2w agodebasedMidBuyYes9.9¢$311
2w agoxxNyxMidSellNo87¢$643
2w agoxxNyxMidSellNo87¢$22
2w agoxxNyxMidSellNo87¢$87
2w agoxxNyxMidSellNo87¢$2
2w agoxxNyxMidSellNo89¢$40
2w agoxxNyxMidSellNo89¢$201
2w agoxxNyxMidBuyNo83¢$363
2w agoxxNyxMidBuyNo85¢$595
3w agoxxNyxMidSellNo94¢$39
3w agoVoland6777MidSellNo95¢$125
4w agoCarMidSellYes10¢$15
4w agoCarMidSellYes10¢$86
4w agoxxNyxMidBuyNo87¢$11
4w agoxxNyxMidBuyNo87¢$7
4w agononkenny90MidBuyNo91¢$182
4w agoCarMidBuyYes9.4¢$94
4w agononkenny90MidBuyNo91¢$91
4w agoxxNyxMidBuyNo88¢$18
5w agononkenny90MidBuyNo92¢$413
5w agononkenny90MidBuyNo92¢$500