Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?
ActiveLiquidity $98.5K·Volume $185.0K·Ends Jul 1, 2027
Price now:Yes56%No45%
Smart money leans
No
45% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
80%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
45%price45%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$5,262 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered45¢45¢at 06:45(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppSignal age30dResolvesin 232d(Jul 1, 2027)Liquidity$98.5K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is strongly betting on "No", with $5,262 riding on it.
The price of 45% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 45¢; the price was 45¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $5,262 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:45
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $5 |
| 9w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $265 |
| 9w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $41 |
| 9w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $600 |
| 9w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $6 |
| 9w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | Yes | 51¢ | $807 |
| 9w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 52¢ | $312 |
| 9w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 52¢ | $4 |
| 9w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 52¢ | $48 |
| 9w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 53¢ | $12 |
| 9w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 53¢ | $0 |
| 9w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 53¢ | $0 |
| 9w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 53¢ | $0 |
| 9w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 53¢ | $0 |
| 9w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 53¢ | $0 |
| 9w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 53¢ | $40 |
| 9w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 54¢ | $54 |
| 9w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 55¢ | $55 |
| 9w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 56¢ | $56 |
| 9w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 57¢ | $57 |
| 9w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Sell | Yes | 59¢ | $200 |
| 9w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Sell | Yes | 59¢ | $175 |
| 9w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Sell | Yes | 59¢ | $1 |
| 9w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Sell | Yes | 59¢ | $60 |
| 9w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Sell | Yes | 59¢ | $3 |
| 9w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Sell | Yes | 59¢ | $30 |
| 9w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Sell | Yes | 59¢ | $70 |
| 9w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Sell | Yes | 59¢ | $590 |
| 9w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Sell | Yes | 59¢ | $32 |
| 9w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Sell | Yes | 63¢ | $2 |
| 9w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Sell | Yes | 63¢ | $693 |
| 9w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Sell | Yes | 63¢ | $630 |
| 9w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Sell | Yes | 63¢ | $393 |
| 9w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | Yes | 68¢ | $233 |
| 9w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | Yes | 73¢ | $126 |
| 9w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | Yes | 73¢ | $37 |
| 9w ago | siickMid | Buy | No | 41¢ | $1,640 |
| 9w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | Yes | 59¢ | $2,847 |
| 9w ago | siickMid | Buy | No | 45¢ | $2,700 |
| 9w ago | siickMid | Buy | No | 54¢ | $986 |