Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?
ActiveLiquidity $76.2K·Volume $206.5K·Ends Feb 1, 2027
Price now:Yes23%No77%
Smart money leans
No
76% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
84%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
76%price76%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$2,134 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$313
72h +$1,822
Smart money entered76¢76¢at 07:00(49% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy14h agoResolvesin 82d(Feb 1, 2027)Liquidity$76.2K
Explanation
5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "No", with $2,134 riding on it.
The price of 76% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 76¢; the price was 76¢ at this snapshot — roughly 49% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$313, +$1,822 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:00
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14h ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $1 |
| 17h ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $8 |
| 17h ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $20 |
| 18h ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $183 |
| 20h ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $97 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 74¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 74¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 74¢ | $9 |
| 1d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 74¢ | $9 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 74¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 74¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 74¢ | $9 |
| 1d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 74¢ | $9 |
| 1d ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 76¢ | $700 |
| 1d ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 76¢ | $700 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 75¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 75¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 75¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 75¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 75¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 75¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 75¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 75¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 75¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 75¢ | $4 |
| 3d ago | Rafael88Top | Sell | No | 73¢ | $2,024 |
| 4d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 76¢ | $20 |
| 4d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 76¢ | $20 |
| 4d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 76¢ | $9 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $2 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $4 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $1 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $1 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $0 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $74 |
| 5d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $304 |
| 5d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $457 |
| 5d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $54 |
| 5d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $7 |
| 5d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $1 |
| 5d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $95 |
| 5d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $0 |
| 5d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $0 |
| 5d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $48 |
| 5d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $5 |
| 5d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $5 |
| 5d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $5 |
| 5d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $0 |
| 5d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $2 |
| 5d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $1 |