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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?

ActiveLiquidity $76.2K·Volume $206.5K·Ends Feb 1, 2027
Price now:Yes23%No77%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:00computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
76% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
84%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
76%price76%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$2,134 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$313
72h +$1,822
Smart money entered76¢76¢at 07:00(49% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy14h agoResolvesin 82d(Feb 1, 2027)Liquidity$76.2K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "No", with $2,134 riding on it.

The price of 76% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 76¢; the price was 76¢ at this snapshot — roughly 49% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$313, +$1,822 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 07:00
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
14h ago1nvoker1MidBuyNo75¢$1
17h ago1nvoker1MidBuyNo75¢$8
17h ago1nvoker1MidBuyNo75¢$20
18h ago1nvoker1MidBuyNo75¢$183
20h ago1nvoker1MidBuyNo75¢$97
1d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo74¢$6
1d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo74¢$6
1d ago080526TopBuyNo74¢$9
1d ago080526TopBuyNo74¢$9
1d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo74¢$6
1d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo74¢$6
1d ago080526TopBuyNo74¢$9
1d ago080526TopBuyNo74¢$9
1d agoRafael88TopBuyNo76¢$700
1d agoRafael88TopBuyNo76¢$700
1d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo75¢$6
1d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo75¢$4
1d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo75¢$4
1d ago080526TopBuyNo75¢$5
1d ago080526TopBuyNo75¢$5
1d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo75¢$6
1d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo75¢$4
1d ago080526TopBuyNo75¢$5
1d ago080526TopBuyNo75¢$5
1d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo75¢$4
3d agoRafael88TopSellNo73¢$2,024
4d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo76¢$20
4d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo76¢$20
4d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo76¢$9
4d agoCarMidBuyYes22¢$2
4d agoCarMidBuyYes22¢$4
4d agoCarMidBuyYes22¢$1
4d agoCarMidBuyYes22¢$1
4d agoCarMidBuyYes22¢$0
4d agoCarMidBuyYes22¢$74
5d agoCarMidBuyYes22¢$304
5d agoCarMidBuyYes23¢$457
5d agoCarMidBuyYes23¢$54
5d agoCarMidBuyYes21¢$7
5d agoCarMidBuyYes21¢$1
5d agoCarMidBuyYes21¢$95
5d agoCarMidBuyYes21¢$0
5d agoCarMidBuyYes21¢$0
5d agoCarMidBuyYes21¢$48
5d agoCarMidBuyYes21¢$5
5d agoCarMidBuyYes21¢$5
5d agoCarMidBuyYes21¢$5
5d agoCarMidBuyYes21¢$0
5d agoCarMidBuyYes21¢$2
5d agoCarMidBuyYes21¢$1