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Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $48.8K·Volume $643.6K·Ends Dec 1, 2026
Price now:Yes100%No0%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 05:34computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$2,159
72h +$2,551
Smart money entered99¢100¢at 05:34(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 20d(Dec 1, 2026)Liquidity$48.8K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 99¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $0 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$2,159, +$2,551 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 05:34
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1d agokinderSmanMidBuyYes99¢$1,067
1d agokinderSmanMidBuyYes99¢$1,067
1d agoVoland6777MidBuyYes98¢$1
1d agoVoland6777MidBuyYes98¢$1
1d agoVoland6777MidBuyYes98¢$3
1d agoVoland6777MidBuyYes98¢$1
1d agoVoland6777MidBuyYes98¢$1
1d agoVoland6777MidBuyYes99¢$30
1d agoVoland6777MidBuyYes99¢$30
1d agokinderSmanMidBuyYes99¢$99
1d agokinderSmanMidBuyYes99¢$99
1d agoVoland6777MidBuyYes96¢$1
1d agoVoland6777MidBuyYes96¢$1
1d agoVoland6777MidBuyYes96¢$18
1d agoVoland6777MidBuyYes96¢$7
1d agoVoland6777MidBuyYes96¢$1
1d agoVoland6777MidBuyYes96¢$1
2d agoVoland6777MidBuyYes96¢$2
2d agoVoland6777MidBuyYes96¢$2
2d agoVoland6777MidBuyYes97¢$19
2d agoVoland6777MidBuyYes97¢$19
2d agoVoland6777MidBuyYes97¢$48
4d agononkenny90MidBuyYes95¢$1,283
6d agoMichael-The-TaxiarchMidSellYes93¢$20
1w ago101456MidBuyYes67¢$159
1w agoMichael-The-TaxiarchMidSellYes93¢$133
1w agononkenny90MidBuyYes86¢$286
1w agononkenny90MidBuyYes87¢$3
1w agononkenny90MidBuyYes87¢$17
1w agononkenny90MidBuyYes87¢$17
1w agononkenny90MidBuyYes88¢$284
1w agononkenny90MidBuyYes87¢$58
1w agononkenny90MidBuyYes87¢$70
1w agononkenny90MidBuyYes88¢$9
1w agoCarMidBuyYes86¢$17
1w agoCarMidBuyYes87¢$17
1w agoCarMidSellYes90¢$900
1w agoMichael-The-TaxiarchMidSellYes88¢$273
1w agoMichael-The-TaxiarchMidSellYes88¢$18
1w agoMichael-The-TaxiarchMidSellYes88¢$19
1w agoCarMidBuyYes88¢$877
1w agoMichael-The-TaxiarchMidSellYes88¢$570
1w agoCarMidBuyYes73¢$95
1w agoMichael-The-TaxiarchMidBuyYes73¢$1,425
2w ago101456MidBuyNo17¢$57
2w agoStarMasterMidSellYes68¢$8
2w agoStarMasterMidSellYes68¢$24
2w agoStarMasterMidSellYes68¢$10
2w agoStarMasterMidSellYes68¢$37
2w agoStarMasterMidSellYes68¢$14