Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?
ActiveLiquidity $9,738·Volume $4,733·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes3%No97%
Smart money leans
No
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$512 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered91¢97¢at 03:20(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$9,738
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $512 riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 91¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $512 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 03:20
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | eCashTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $512 |