Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026
ActiveLiquidity $38.3K·Volume $48.4K·Ends Dec 1, 2026
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$402 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered96¢99¢at 07:40(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4w agoResolvesin 20d(Dec 1, 2026)Liquidity$38.3K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $402 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 96¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $402 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:40
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $403 |