Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?
ActiveLiquidity $6,117·Volume $59.8K·Ends Nov 1, 2026
Price now:Yes8%No92%
Smart money leans
No
92% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
92%price92%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$554 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered91¢92¢at 18:23(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneSignal age30dResolvesended(Nov 1, 2026)Liquidity$6,117
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $554 riding on it.
The price of 92% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 91¢; the price was 92¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $554 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 18:23
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4w ago | nonkenny90Top | Buy | No | 91¢ | $109 |
| 4w ago | nonkenny90Top | Buy | No | 90¢ | $100 |
| 4w ago | nonkenny90Top | Buy | No | 89¢ | $99 |
| 4w ago | nonkenny90Top | Buy | No | 91¢ | $2 |
| 4w ago | nonkenny90Top | Buy | No | 91¢ | $46 |
| 4w ago | nonkenny90Top | Buy | No | 91¢ | $15 |
| 4w ago | nonkenny90Top | Buy | No | 92¢ | $173 |
| 4w ago | nonkenny90Top | Buy | No | 91¢ | $9 |