Anthropic IPO: Closing Price above IPO Price on First Day?
ActiveLiquidity $15.1K·Volume $14.5K·Ends Jan 1, 2028
Price now:Yes76%No24%
Smart money leans
No
22% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
22%price22%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$157 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$204
72h +$499
Smart money entered10¢22¢at 06:55(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy14h agoResolvesin 416d(Jan 1, 2028)Liquidity$15.1K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $157 riding on it.
The price of 22% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 10¢; the price was 22¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $157 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$204, +$499 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:55
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 10¢ | $8 |
| 14h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 9.0¢ | $56 |
| 19h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 10¢ | $6 |
| 20h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 10¢ | $9 |
| 20h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 10¢ | $9 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 12¢ | $79 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 12¢ | $79 |
| 2w ago | viniiTop | Sell | No | 11¢ | $2 |
| 2w ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 3.0¢ | $1 |