Will Xavier Becerra win Fresno County in the California governor race in 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $10.4K·Volume $11.2K·Ends Nov 3, 2026
Price now:Yes74%No26%
Smart money leans
Yes
73% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
73%price73%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$832 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered34¢73¢at 07:45(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 3, 2026)Liquidity$10.4K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $832 riding on it.
The price of 73% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 34¢; the price was 73¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $832 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:45
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836Top | Buy | Yes | 34¢ | $854 |
| 6w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | No | 63¢ | $265 |
| 6w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 51¢ | $221 |