Will Werner Pretorius be the next mayor of Mangaung?
ActiveLiquidity $397·Volume $10.6K·Ends Nov 5, 2026
Price now:Yes16%No85%
Smart money leans
No
85% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
85%price85%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$322 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered62¢85¢at 02:08(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneSignal age30dResolvesended(Nov 5, 2026)Liquidity$397
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $322 riding on it.
The price of 85% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 62¢; the price was 85¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $322 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 02:08
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 62¢ | $226 |
| 5w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | No | 62¢ | $61 |
| 5w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | No | 70¢ | $201 |
| 5w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 63¢ | $349 |
| 5w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | No | 61¢ | $453 |
| 6w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 53¢ | $3 |
| 7w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 53¢ | $32 |
| 7w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 54¢ | $201 |
| 7w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 53¢ | $106 |
| 7w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 47¢ | $34 |
| 8w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 54¢ | $31 |