Will Vox win the Ceuta seat in the 2026 Spanish general election?
ActiveLiquidity $25.7K·Volume $5,443·Ends Nov 30, 2026
Price now:Yes28%No73%
Smart money leans
Yes
28% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
28%price28%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$274 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$295
Smart money entered27¢28¢at 06:39(74% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 19d(Nov 30, 2026)Liquidity$25.7K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $274 riding on it.
The price of 28% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 27¢; the price was 28¢ at this snapshot — roughly 74% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $274 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$295 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:39
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | Ryxon21Top | Buy | Yes | 26¢ | $13 |
| 1d ago | Ryxon21Top | Buy | Yes | 26¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | Ryxon21Top | Buy | Yes | 26¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | Ryxon21Top | Buy | Yes | 26¢ | $13 |
| 2d ago | Ryxon21Top | Buy | Yes | 27¢ | $265 |
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | No | 74¢ | $308 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 61¢ | $256 |