Will voter turnout be between 68% and 70% in the 2026 Spanish general election?
ActiveLiquidity $7,508·Volume $1,586·Ends Nov 30, 2026
Price now:Yes22%No78%
Smart money leans
No
78% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
81%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
78%price78%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$146 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$312
72h +$312
Smart money entered73¢78¢at 06:59(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy10h agoResolvesin 19d(Nov 30, 2026)Liquidity$7,508
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is strongly betting on "No", with $146 riding on it.
The price of 78% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 73¢; the price was 78¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $146 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$312, +$312 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:59
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10h ago | fbetMid | Buy | No | 73¢ | $146 |
| 10h ago | fbetMid | Buy | No | 73¢ | $146 |
| 3w ago | viniiTop | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $56 |
| 3w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $4 |