Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $8,636·Volume $178.5K·Ends Feb 1, 2027
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$2,561 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$39
Smart money entered81¢98¢at 06:56(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 82d(Feb 1, 2027)Liquidity$8,636
Explanation
4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $2,561 riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 81¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$39 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:56
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | StudyPredictionMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $20 |
| 1d ago | StudyPredictionMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $20 |
| 2w ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $1,570 |
| 2w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $11 |
| 2w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $36 |
| 2w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $18 |
| 2w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $36 |
| 2w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $18 |
| 2w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $4 |
| 2w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $36 |
| 2w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $21 |
| 4w ago | viniiTop | Sell | No | 95¢ | $4,486 |
| 9w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 92¢ | $42 |
| 10w ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $2 |