Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be 4,000,000 or more?
ActiveLiquidity $2,430·Volume $4,975·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes4%No96%
Smart money leans
No
96% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price96%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$361 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered82¢96¢at 06:32(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$2,430
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $361 riding on it.
The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 82¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $361 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:32
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | No | 81¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | No | 83¢ | $222 |
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | No | 88¢ | $53 |
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | No | 87¢ | $54 |
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $18 |
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 82¢ | $673 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $4 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $71 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $6 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 5.6¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 5.5¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 4.5¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $198 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $22 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $40 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $19 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 5.6¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $276 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $5 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $13 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $39 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $39 |