Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon be between 1,900,000 and 2,000,000?
ActiveLiquidity $45·Volume $3,715·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes90%No10%
Smart money leans
Yes
90% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
90%price90%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$451 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered75¢90¢at 07:21(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$45
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $451 riding on it.
The price of 90% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 75¢; the price was 90¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $451 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:21
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 85¢ | $17 |
| 4d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 75¢ | $491 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 5.1¢ | $1 |