Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be between 4,650,000 and 4,800,000?
ActiveLiquidity $101·Volume $11.7K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes50%No51%
Smart money leans
Yes
50% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
50%price50%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$192 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$527
Smart money entered68¢50¢at 07:30(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$101
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $192 riding on it.
The price of 50% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 68¢; the price was 50¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $192 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$527 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:30
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 68¢ | $361 |
| 1d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 68¢ | $361 |