Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from North Carolina be between 3,700,000 and 3,900,000?
ActiveLiquidity $356·Volume $4,354·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes8%No92%
Smart money leans
No
92% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
92%price92%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$416 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered83¢92¢at 07:35(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$356
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $416 riding on it.
The price of 92% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 83¢; the price was 92¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $416 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:35
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 5.6¢ | $1 |
| 5d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 5.6¢ | $1 |
| 5d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 5.5¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | No | 95¢ | $286 |
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 83¢ | $668 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $16 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $13 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $14 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $15 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 14¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $17 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $4 |
| 6w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 6.6¢ | $1 |