Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Nebraska be between 750,000 and 800,000?
ActiveLiquidity $48·Volume $6,247·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes68%No32%
Smart money leans
Yes
69% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
69%price69%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$456 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$14
Smart money entered78¢69¢at 07:29(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy2d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$48
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $456 riding on it.
The price of 69% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 78¢; the price was 69¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $456 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$14 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:29
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 90¢ | $18 |
| 3d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 88¢ | $520 |
| 6d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $39 |