Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be 5,600,000 or more?
ActiveLiquidity $3,472·Volume $17.8K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes5%No95%
Smart money leans
No
95% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
87%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
95%price95%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$446 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered84¢95¢at 07:28(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$3,472
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $446 riding on it.
The price of 95% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 84¢; the price was 95¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $446 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:28
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | No | 98¢ | $196 |
| 4d ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | No | 98¢ | $320 |
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 88¢ | $381 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $400 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 19¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $6 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $13 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $9 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $7 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $6 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 27¢ | $4 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $9 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $4 |
| 2w ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $128 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $30 |