Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be between 900,000 and 975,000?
ActiveLiquidity $69·Volume $18.3K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes5%No95%
Smart money leans
No
95% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
95%price95%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$603 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered35¢95¢at 07:39(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$69
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $603 riding on it.
The price of 95% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 35¢; the price was 95¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $603 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:39
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 63¢ | $16 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 45¢ | $23 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 37¢ | $28 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 41¢ | $8 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 42¢ | $15 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 43¢ | $9 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 40¢ | $4 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 67¢ | $4 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 45¢ | $34 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 47¢ | $44 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 37¢ | $46 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $12 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $66 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $7 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $5 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $66 |
| 4w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $66 |
| 4w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $67 |
| 4w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $18 |
| 4w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $66 |
| 4w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $3 |
| 4w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $2 |
| 4w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $31 |
| 4w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $5 |
| 4w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $5 |
| 4w ago | JesetradingTop | Sell | Yes | 68¢ | $27 |
| 4w ago | JesetradingTop | Buy | Yes | 55¢ | $22 |
| 4w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 44¢ | $9 |
| 5w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 26¢ | $5 |
| 5w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $3 |
| 6w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 33¢ | $7 |