Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be between 825,000 and 900,000?
ActiveLiquidity $63·Volume $7,081·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes94%No7%
Smart money leans
Yes
94% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
94%price94%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$400 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered47¢94¢at 07:41(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$63
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $400 riding on it.
The price of 94% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 47¢; the price was 94¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $400 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:41
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 35¢ | $9 |
| 6d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 69¢ | $359 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 14¢ | $15 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 14¢ | $6 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $2 |
| 4w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $12 |
| 4w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $3 |
| 5w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $4 |
| 5w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $3 |
| 6w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $6 |