Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin be between 2,200,000 and 2,400,000?
ActiveLiquidity $560·Volume $4,060·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes3%No97%
Smart money leans
No
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
88%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$579 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered87¢97¢at 07:43(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$560
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $579 riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 87¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $579 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:43
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | No | 97¢ | $128 |
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $694 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $6 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $4 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $11 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 6.6¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 6.7¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 6.7¢ | $5 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 5.9¢ | $8 |
| 3w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 4.6¢ | $0 |
| 4w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 1.8¢ | $4 |
| 6w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |