Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania be between 5,000,000 and 5,500,000?
ActiveLiquidity $10.1K·Volume $6,689·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes54%No47%
Smart money leans
Yes
52% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
72%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
52%price52%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$288 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered80¢52¢at 07:42(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy3d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$10.1K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is strongly betting on "Yes", with $288 riding on it.
The price of 52% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 80¢; the price was 52¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $288 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:42
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 80¢ | $452 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 49¢ | $49 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 49¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 50¢ | $10 |
| 7w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 26¢ | $5 |