Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Nevada be between 1,050,000 and 1,125,000?
ActiveLiquidity $74·Volume $4,969·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes49%No51%
Smart money leans
Yes
49% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
49%price49%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$260 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered56¢49¢at 08:25(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$74
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $260 riding on it.
The price of 49% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 56¢; the price was 49¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $260 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 08:25
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 80¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 80¢ | $4 |
| 4d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 63¢ | $238 |
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 37¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 37¢ | $51 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 64¢ | $13 |
| 3w ago | viniiTop | Buy | Yes | 34¢ | $1 |
| 4w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 9.9¢ | $2 |