Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be between 2,450,000 and 2,600,000?
ActiveLiquidity $68·Volume $4,424·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes51%No49%
Smart money leans
Yes
51% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
51%price51%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$304 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered75¢51¢at 07:45(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$68
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $304 riding on it.
The price of 51% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 75¢; the price was 51¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $304 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:45
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 80¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 80¢ | $4 |
| 4d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 75¢ | $506 |