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Will Toluca win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura?

ActiveLiquidity $3,949·Volume $14.6K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes18%No82%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:42computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
82% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
82%price82%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,383 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$1,800
72h +$1,402
Smart money entered83¢82¢at 07:42(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy17h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$3,949
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $1,383 riding on it.

The price of 82% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 83¢; the price was 82¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $1,383 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$1,800, +$1,402 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 07:42
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
17h agothefakenickMidBuyNo82¢$41
17h agothefakenickMidBuyNo82¢$41
17h agothefakenickMidBuyNo82¢$43
17h agothefakenickMidBuyNo84¢$265
17h agothefakenickMidBuyNo82¢$14
17h agothefakenickMidBuyNo84¢$265
17h agothefakenickMidBuyNo82¢$14
17h agothefakenickMidBuyNo82¢$43
17h agothefakenickMidBuyNo84¢$113
17h agothefakenickMidBuyNo84¢$113
17h agothefakenickMidBuyNo84¢$356
17h agothefakenickMidBuyNo84¢$419
17h agothefakenickMidBuyNo84¢$102
2d agothefakenickMidBuyYes14¢$74
2d agothefakenickMidBuyNo82¢$52
2d agothefakenickMidBuyNo82¢$52
6d agothefakenickMidSellNo87¢$10
2w agothefakenickMidSellNo88¢$31
2w agothefakenickMidSellNo88¢$115
2w agothefakenickMidSellNo89¢$2
2w agothefakenickMidSellNo89¢$487
3w agothefakenickMidBuyYes12¢$19
4w agothefakenickMidSellNo86¢$9
4w agothefakenickMidSellNo86¢$76
4w agothefakenickMidBuyNo78¢$551
4w agothefakenickMidSellNo82¢$16
4w agothefakenickMidBuyNo71¢$154
4w agothefakenickMidBuyNo76¢$54
4w agothefakenickMidBuyNo76¢$11
5w agothefakenickMidBuyNo76¢$154
6w agothefakenickMidBuyNo80¢$1
7w agothefakenickMidSellNo82¢$7
7w agothefakenickMidSellNo82¢$16
7w agothefakenickMidSellNo82¢$16
7w agothefakenickMidSellNo82¢$17
7w agothefakenickMidSellNo82¢$17
7w agothefakenickMidSellNo82¢$13
7w agothefakenickMidSellNo82¢$21
7w agothefakenickMidSellNo82¢$139
7w agothefakenickMidSellNo82¢$59
7w agothefakenickMidSellNo82¢$16
7w agothefakenickMidBuyNo78¢$3
7w agothefakenickMidBuyNo78¢$14
7w agothefakenickMidBuyNo78¢$19
7w agothefakenickMidSellNo84¢$4
7w agothefakenickMidSellNo84¢$9
8w agothefakenickMidSellNo84¢$42
8w agothefakenickMidSellNo84¢$495
8w agothefakenickMidBuyNo74¢$40
8w agothefakenickMidBuyNo74¢$56