Will Toluca win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura?
ActiveLiquidity $3,949·Volume $14.6K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes18%No82%
Smart money leans
No
82% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
82%price82%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,383 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$1,800
72h +$1,402
Smart money entered83¢82¢at 07:42(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy17h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$3,949
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $1,383 riding on it.
The price of 82% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 83¢; the price was 82¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,383 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$1,800, +$1,402 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:42
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17h ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $41 |
| 17h ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $41 |
| 17h ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $43 |
| 17h ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 84¢ | $265 |
| 17h ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $14 |
| 17h ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 84¢ | $265 |
| 17h ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $14 |
| 17h ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $43 |
| 17h ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 84¢ | $113 |
| 17h ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 84¢ | $113 |
| 17h ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 84¢ | $356 |
| 17h ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 84¢ | $419 |
| 17h ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 84¢ | $102 |
| 2d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | Yes | 14¢ | $74 |
| 2d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $52 |
| 2d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $52 |
| 6d ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $10 |
| 2w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 88¢ | $31 |
| 2w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 88¢ | $115 |
| 2w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $2 |
| 2w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $487 |
| 3w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $19 |
| 4w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $9 |
| 4w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $76 |
| 4w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $551 |
| 4w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 82¢ | $16 |
| 4w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $154 |
| 4w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $54 |
| 4w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $11 |
| 5w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $154 |
| 6w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $1 |
| 7w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 82¢ | $7 |
| 7w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 82¢ | $16 |
| 7w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 82¢ | $16 |
| 7w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 82¢ | $17 |
| 7w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 82¢ | $17 |
| 7w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 82¢ | $13 |
| 7w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 82¢ | $21 |
| 7w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 82¢ | $139 |
| 7w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 82¢ | $59 |
| 7w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 82¢ | $16 |
| 7w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $3 |
| 7w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $14 |
| 7w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $19 |
| 7w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 84¢ | $4 |
| 7w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 84¢ | $9 |
| 8w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 84¢ | $42 |
| 8w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 84¢ | $495 |
| 8w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $40 |
| 8w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $56 |