Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $11.6K·Volume $38.4K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes85%No15%
Smart money leans
Yes
85% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
85%price85%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$981 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered73¢85¢at 07:46(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy5d agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$11.6K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $981 riding on it.
The price of 85% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 73¢; the price was 85¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $981 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:46
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 89¢ | $254 |
| 5d ago | clazzy1Mid | Sell | Yes | 84¢ | $271 |
| 5d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 79¢ | $904 |
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 73¢ | $207 |
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 71¢ | $171 |
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 74¢ | $351 |
| 1w ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | Yes | 63¢ | $514 |
| 2w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 59¢ | $12 |
| 2w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 56¢ | $281 |
| 3w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 54¢ | $149 |
| 3w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 65¢ | $749 |
| 3w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 73¢ | $72 |
| 3w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 65¢ | $8 |
| 3w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 58¢ | $590 |
| 4w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 55¢ | $141 |
| 4w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 57¢ | $93 |
| 4w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 60¢ | $136 |
| 4w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 60¢ | $12 |
| 4w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 54¢ | $159 |
| 10w ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 70¢ | $402 |
| 10w ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 80¢ | $52 |
| 10w ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 80¢ | $16 |
| 10w ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 80¢ | $2 |