Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
ActiveLiquidity $2,290·Volume $11.2K·Ends Apr 1, 2027
Price now:Yes100%No0%
Smart money leans
Yes
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$1,791
Smart money entered100¢100¢at 07:02(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesin 141d(Apr 1, 2027)Liquidity$2,290
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 100¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $0 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$1,791 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:02
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eMid | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $110 |
| 2d ago | 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eMid | Buy | Yes | 100¢ | $1,676 |