Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?
ActiveLiquidity $739·Volume $4,542·Ends Mar 17, 2027
Price now:Yes65%No36%
Smart money leans
Yes
65% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
65%price65%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$429 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered41¢65¢at 17:13(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 126d(Mar 17, 2027)Liquidity$739
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $429 riding on it.
The price of 65% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 41¢; the price was 65¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $429 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 17:13
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | YoungAlphaGoatTop | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $41 |
| 1w ago | YoungAlphaGoatTop | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $45 |
| 1w ago | YoungAlphaGoatTop | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $354 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 47¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $18 |