Will the Republicans win Michigan in the 2028 Presidential Election?
ActiveLiquidity $63.8K·Volume $3,175·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes30%No71%
Smart money leans
Yes
30% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.2pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
30%price30%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$693 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h -$185
Smart money entered32¢30¢at 05:42(0% priced in)Edge left+0.2ppLast smart buy6h agoResolvesin 726d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$63.8K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $693 riding on it.
The price of 30% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 32¢; the price was 30¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $693 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have trimmed -$185 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 05:42
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6h ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $6 |
| 2d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $2 |
| 2d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $2 |
| 2d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $6 |
| 2d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $0 |
| 2d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Sell | Yes | 31¢ | $205 |
| 4d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 31¢ | $12 |
| 4d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 31¢ | $55 |
| 4d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 31¢ | $6 |
| 5d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 31¢ | $135 |
| 5d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 31¢ | $100 |
| 5d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 31¢ | $32 |
| 5d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $3 |
| 5d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $24 |
| 5d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $213 |
| 5d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $3 |
| 5d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $16 |
| 5d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $19 |
| 5d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $6 |
| 5d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $16 |
| 5d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $3 |
| 5d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $14 |
| 5d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $103 |
| 5d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $12 |
| 5d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $14 |
| 5d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $10 |
| 5d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $10 |
| 5d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $128 |
| 5d ago | SitsToPeeMid | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $8 |