Will the Republican Party win the CA-23 House seat?
ActiveLiquidity $15.3K·Volume $107.5K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes97%No3%
Smart money leans
Yes
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$4,085 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$455
72h +$1,284
Smart money entered91¢97¢at 21:53(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy10h agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$15.3K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $4,085 riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 91¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$455, +$1,284 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 21:53
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $14 |
| 10h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $14 |
| 10h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $125 |
| 10h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $125 |
| 10h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $175 |
| 1d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $232 |
| 2d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $36 |
| 2d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $561 |
| 3d ago | 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $368 |
| 5d ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 14¢ | $32 |
| 5d ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | No | 15¢ | $35 |
| 3w ago | 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836Top | Sell | Yes | 98¢ | $1,853 |