Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 VA-09 House election by 30%-35%?
ActiveLiquidity $10.2K·Volume $11.0K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes93%No7%
Smart money leans
Yes
90% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
75%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
90%price90%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$565 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered28¢90¢at 07:35(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$10.2K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "Yes", with $565 riding on it.
The price of 90% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 28¢; the price was 90¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $565 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:35