Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 UT-04 House election by 5%-15%?
ActiveLiquidity $42·Volume $4,796·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes38%No62%
Smart money leans
Yes
38% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
38%price38%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$300 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$281
Smart money entered45¢38¢at 07:40(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$42
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $300 riding on it.
The price of 38% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 45¢; the price was 38¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $300 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$281 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:40
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 82¢ | $143 |
| 1d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 82¢ | $143 |
| 2d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 86¢ | $32 |
| 2d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $6 |
| 2d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $241 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $43 |
| 3w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | No | 69¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $4 |
| 3w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $43 |
| 4w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 4.9¢ | $5 |
| 4w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 14¢ | $2 |
| 5w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 7.0¢ | $2 |