Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-25 House election by 20%-25%?
ActiveLiquidity $10.1K·Volume $6,233·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes0%No100%
Smart money leans
No
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$375 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered63¢100¢at 07:34(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$10.1K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $375 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 63¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $375 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:34
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Sell | Yes | 0.2¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | Albert 1953Mid | Buy | No | 63¢ | $395 |
| 3w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | No | 80¢ | $12 |
| 3w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | No | 76¢ | $15 |
| 6w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 21¢ | $16 |
| 7w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $10 |
| 7w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 28¢ | $16 |
| 7w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $11 |