Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-05 House election by 0%-5%?
ActiveLiquidity $2,957·Volume $2,886·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes97%No3%
Smart money leans
Yes
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$493 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered77¢97¢at 07:25(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$2,957
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $493 riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 77¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $493 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:25
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $489 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 19¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $4 |